Uncertainty in climate science and climate policy

This essay, written by a statistician and a climate scientist, describes our view of the gap that exists between current practice in mainstream climate science, and the practical needs of policymakers charged with exploring possible interventions in the context of climate change. By ‘mainstream’ we mean the type of climate science that dominates in universities and research centres, which we will term ‘academic’ climate science, in contrast to ‘policy’ climate science; aspects of this distinction will become clearer in what follows. In a nutshell, we do not think that academic climate science equips climate scientists to be as helpful as they might be, when involved in climate policy assessment. Partly, we attribute this to an over-investment in high resolution climate simulators, and partly to a culture that is uncomfortable with the inherently subjective nature of climate uncertainty. ∗Corresponding author. Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Bristol, University Walk, Bristol BS8 1TW, email [email protected].